Coronavirus disease or COVID-19 has spread so wildly that calling it the biggest disruption in our lifetimes would be an understatement. India is a country with a huge population and a very dense one too. Hence stopping an infectious disease in this country is very difficult. I think The Government of India did the right thing by initiating a lockdown across the country. I still believe that we are a few days late in implementing this and I hope it doesn’t cost us. But its better late than never. Looking at the other countries in the west who are struggling to implement a full lockdown, I must say that our Government has taken the right step. Implementing a nation wide lock down at stage 2 of the pandemic hopefully will help our country to normalise faster than other nations.
But does declaring a lockdown enough to stop the disease to spread? I do not wish to get into the technicalities of random testing or data projections but I want to know how do we implement a lockdown.
In the televised address by the honourable PM, Mr. Narendra Modi on 24th March, it was declared that India will be under lockdown for the next 21 days, i.e., till 14th April 2020. Under the lockdown scenario all citizens are expected to stay indoors and should not venture out of their homes other than any urgent or emergency needs. Its quite understandable that all essential services like Hospitals, Medicine Stores, Grocery, ATMs will be available for the common man. And here lies my main issue which I will explain below:
In the morning, we are seeing that there is a lot of rush in the markets. Some places, yes distances are being maintained but not everywhere. In certain areas shops are being opened for specific times and hence people in clusters are reaching there and sometimes jostling is happening quite understandably. This last mile delivery of basic items, according to me is defeating the whole purpose of a lock down. Nobody is insulated from this disease. We do not know who is infected. Hence allowing this to happen is wrong. Lockdown needs to be implemented like a curfew. The question that will arise is how do the essential items reach to the citizens. I think we should use the delivery guys of Zomato, Swiggy or the drivers of Uber & Ola as well as the traffic volunteers who right now has no work. I will now list down my idea on how to implement this below:
- Shops of essential items to be marked and the phone numbers of these vendors to be be sent to the citizens. Aadhar database to be used.
- People will be requested to phone and make their orders along with their phone numbers and addresses. After ordering they can pay via wallets. COD will also be available.
- The shopkeeper gets the items ready and the delivery boy goes and deliver the items.
- For any particular area, government can earmark 5-10 shops for essential items.
- Each shop to have a couple of delivery boys. The deliver boy need not run around throughout the day. Since its a localised concept so wait for 5-6 orders and then take them together based on the addresses.
- For large complexes, the order can be delivered at the security gate. If its pre-paid, then he calls and the person comes and collect the items. If its COD, he takes the cash and move on.
We need to understand that when there is a curfew, the government relaxes the curfew for an hour or so to allow people to collect and buy necessary items. But here its a case of an infectious disease. One never knows from where the virus will enter our bodies specially if you keep going to market place and keep meeting people outside your known or social circle. Hence for us to really defeat this virus, we need to be in lockdown state totally. The idea given above, to get the essential items delivered to the doorstep will go a long way in stopping people from going outside at all.
Now the question that comes is about who pays these delivery boys. I think the customers will pay. I think every individual today understands the gravity of the situation. They are only going out because these items are a necessity. If Government get these items delivered to the doorstep, why will they go out? Another option is the Government pays these delivery boys. Possibly they could, if they can, then it solves a bigger problem.
Can this be implemented? What do you think? Any more ideas on social distancing and how we can make this lockdown 100% successful? I am all ears!
As we all know, hobby is an activity which is done regularly during one’s leisure time for
pleasure. As human lives evolved, so has the hobbies.
When we were kids in the 80’s, generally, hobbies used to be a lot about outdoor sports.
After 1983 cricket became a rage in India and every evening one could see many kids
playing cricket in the open fields (which used to be plenty those days). We being in
Bengal, meant football was in our blood by default. One would hardly find a bengali kid of
the 80’s and 90’s who didn’t play football during the rainy season. So cricket and football
used to be the hobbies of most kids those days.
But there were exceptions as well. Many of my friends those days used to have a great
knack towards philately. There were a few who used to be fascinated with fast cars.
Remember those days, India was more like a socialist economy and having an
ambassador was a luxury. Our only way of learning about fast cars were from magazines
or through World This Week (A weekly programme which used to be aired in Doordarshan
and had a slot for F1 races). Some of my friends used to collect pictures of these sport
cars (Porsche, Ferrari etc.) and paste them in their scrapbooks. It used to be a fascinating
experience seeing those scrapbooks. I used to be equally fascinated with my philatelist
friends because seeing stamps of various countries intrigued me.
I was always very enthusiastic towards cricket and other than playing the game with my
friends during the evenings and holidays, I had this unique habit of scouting through
newspapers and collect the scorecards of International matches (primarily test matches). I
had this as a hobby for more than 3-4 years and I had bundles of books filled with
scoreboards of matches all across the world. From a very young age, specifically from
standard one, my father taught me chess. I caught up with this game very fast and it
became a hobby for me during my growing up years.
When I look at today’s kids, I can see so much difference from how we were those days.
With the advent of high speed internet and fancy smart phones, today kids are upto date
with everything. Today, I get updates about the latest car models from my 15 year old son.
With Video on Demand service available most kids today are either hooked to cartoon
movies or playing fancy video games in their mom or dad’s mobile phone. Many of my
friends keep telling me that their phones become their kid’s property after they reach
home. I have hardly found a kid in the last 10 years whose hobby is philately. That’s sad.
Outdoor sports continue to be played but the numbers have dwindled because options
have increased. One thing that I see many kids picking up these days, is music. Singing,
dancing or playing musical instruments have seen a rise in the last 10-12 years in India.
We must be thankful to the numerous talent hunts that keeps coming up on our TV
channels which has been the primary reason for this upswing.
Finally, its best to leave the kids what they love to do. Let them explore whatever they want
under parental guidance. Share with them our life story for them to get inspired. Let them
spend their leisure time meaningfully and above all, let them do what makes them smile.
Hobby is after all, to not only pass your time but to make you happy as well. So if you love
painting, do it. If you love sketching, go ahead and do it. If you love music, do it. Unfurl
your wings and fly high. The world is waiting to embrace.
The initial 15 Indian players selected for the Cricket World Cup were the following:
Rohit Sharma
Shikhar Dhawan
Virat Kohli
KL Rahul
MS Dhoni
Kedar Jhadav
Hardik Pandya
Bhuvneswar Kumar
Kuldeep Yadav
Y Chahal
Jasprit Bumrah
Dinesh Kartik
Ravindra Jadeja
Md. Shami
Vijay Shankar
Subsequently during the course of the world cup, India faced two injury concerns, Shikhar Dhawan and Vijay Shankar, who were replaced by Rishabh Pant and Mayank Agarwal.
After the world cup, India’s first international series is against West Indies. Quite naturally its expected that we will look towards the future and start the build up towards 2023. When the team was selected and the names were released, I had more questions than answers. Lets check out the selected team first.
Rohit Sharma
Shikhar Dhawan
Virat Kohli
KL Rahul
Manish Pandey
Rishabh Pant
Kedar Jhadav
Shreyas Iyer
Bhuvneswar Kumar
Kuldeep Yadav
Y Chahal
Khaleel Ahmed
Ravindra Jadeja
Md. Shami
Navdeep Sahni
Dhoni made himself unavailable for the tour so replacing him with a middle order batsman (Manish Pandey) makes sense. With Hardik Pandya injured the selectors decided to get a pace bowler (Khaleel Ahmed) replacing him. Vijay Shankar was yet to recover from his toe injury and his place was taken by a middle order batsman (Shreyas Iyer). Jasprit Bumrah was rested and his place was taken by Navdeep Sahni.
Where did Mayank Agarwal vanish? The guy was good enough to become a replacement player in a world cup but doesn’t get a chance in the very next series? What is the logic? Two of our frontline pace bowling all rounders are injured and we don’t take a like for like replacement? why? Many will argue that we don’t have any pace bowling all rounders around. But thats not true. Last season saw the break out of Shivam Dube. He is a genuine all rounder. He can bowl 10 overs and can bat at number 6. He didn’t have a good IPL and hence went off the radar. But he was a consistent performer for Mumbai in the domestic season. What a great opportunity lost to try him out in West Indies. And to rub that in, Dube performed with both bat and ball in the 2 unofficial tests that the India A team played in West Indies a few days back.
This is where the Indian selectors have let us down. Easily we could have taken a 17-18 member team. They could have easily added Mayank Agarwal, Shubman Gill and Shivam Dube in the team which could have been a great exposure for them. We should all be looking towards the 2023 World Cup and we should focus on young break out talents and give them opportunities right away. India did the same mistake with Vijay Shankar. They knew he is a great talent but kept ignoring him and when he was given the opportunity he performed but it was so late that his selection in the world cup became a controversy.
I hope these mistakes are not repeated going forward. India should create a pool of 30-35 players right away and play them across various series in the next 2 years to create the core team which will then play together for the next 2 years so that by the time World Cup arrives, we have a solid team in place which is young and experienced.
Its important that going forward the other talented youngsters get ample opportunities to showcase their talent. We need our batsmen to play freely at the top and our middle order should be able to take the shocks when needed. We don’t want another situation where our top order fails in a crucial match and our middle order lets us down. For that not to happen, the middle order should be given a long rope and they should be backed by the team management. Give them the required confidence so that they play their natural game.
This West Indies series is just the start of a long journey which will culminate with the 2023 world cup. All the best Team India! Bleed Blue!
Being a college goer of Bangalore in Mid 1990’s, Brigade Road remains etched in memory. A popular hangout destination for all youngsters in Bangalore, the place used to be filled with young boys and girls throughout the day and late evenings. Remember those were the pre-mall days, so the crowd used to throng the Brigade Road – MG Road area for shopping, eating out, movies or simply roaming around.
The first KFC outlet in India was opened at Brigade Road so one can imagine how important the location was for brand marketers.
Coming from a typical Bengali family brought up in suburban West Bengal, for me coffee meant a beverage which one has during the winters. When I came to Bangalore in late 1994, I realised drinking coffee was part of the South Indian culture. Every corner of the street had a small bakery and coffee used to be always available. I never was an avid coffee drinker so used to stick to Tea strictly.
In late 1996 during one of our trips to Brigade road area, a new cafe caught our eye, (the logo with a red background made it attractive and eye catching) called Cafe Coffee Day. One of my friends made a quick dash to the outlet and came back in a flash stating its too costly for our liking. Thereafter lots of stores of CCD opened but I being a non-coffee lover, never became a consumer.
Fast Forward and the year was mid 2004. I was working in a company at Bangalore in a sales role and we got a lead to develop the website for Cafe Coffee Day. CCD was already a pretty good brand back in 2004 and our boss wanted to win the deal. I was new into the company set up that time and one of my colleagues handled the deal. Unfortunately we didn’t win it. Its been 8 years that CCD was in business and would you believe it, I was yet to go and have coffee in any CCD outlet. Things were to change soon though.
Early July 2004:
My wife was pregnant with our first child. One evening she suddenly announced that she needs Cold Coffee. This basically meant, whatever happens she needs to be taken to a cafe anyhow. There was a CCD outlet at Indiranagar and that was nearest from my home. This is how I landed at a CCD store finally. Must say, my first taste of Cold Coffee at CCD gave me good vibes because thereafter I have been to many CCD outlets across many cities in India, namely, Chennai, Delhi & Kolkata.
I have held business meetings at various CCD outlets in Bangalore, Chennai and Delhi. Taken my family out for coffee in CCD outlets in Bangalore & Kolkata. Have done School/College friends’ get togethers at CCD outlets in Kolkata. I Have done some political strategy meetings (AIPC) at CCD Park Street as well. So Cafe Coffee Day (CCD) remains quite close to my heart more so because my first taste of cold coffee with my wife happened there.
I was never sure about the business model that Mr. VG Siddhartha built up because I used to see numerous outlets around Kolkata which used to run empty right through the weekdays. Kolkata as we all know is not a coffee lovers place so didn’t understand why CCD needs to open so may outlets here. I feel extremely proud though of the CCD brand because it came out of Bangalore (my second home) and for showing the country that “lots can happen over coffee”. It was a gutsy move to start a Cafe of this scale in the 1990s but as time proved he was not wrong because the coffee culture did pick up in India.
We don’t know yet the exact reason of Mr. VG Siddhartha’s suicide but I do salute his entrepreneurial journey. But I think he shouldn’t have given up. This suicide is an injustice to the entrepreneurial spirit. Quite ironical though that the first CCD store opened in July (1996), my first visit to a CCD store happened in July (2004) and Mr. VG Siddhartha’s demise also happened in July (2019).
#RIPSiddhartha! Om Shanti!
Its been almost 4 days and I am still thinking, “what if”. As a neutral cricket fan if I am thinking so much, imagine what must be going on in the head and hearts of the New Zealand cricketers and their fans. What a match and what a final! 14th July will forever be etched in the heart of all cricket aficionados.
Tons of articles have been written already about the finals and many would be written later as well but my post is not about the Cricket World Cup Final but its about the Indian Cricket Team and why we ended up as a losing semi finalist.
Many die hard cricket fans seem to take this loss in the semi finals as one bad day in office. Many are supporting Virat Kohli’s version as well that 45 minutes of bad cricket threw the team out of the world cup. Technically correct but actually that’s not the real story. Hence a critical analysis is a must and thats what I plan to do here.
Indian team for the last couple of years have been reeling under the problem of a dicey middle order in Limited Overs cricket. The primary reason for this has been that the current crop of batsmen don’t bowl at all. Rohit Sharma, Shikhar Dhawan, Virat Kohli none are decent bowlers. And there lies the difference between the class of 2011 and the class of 2019. The team of 2011 had players in the top order who could bowl economical overs and even pick up wickets. India used to have 8 bowling options in the 2011 team. A team needs to have a back up bowling option in the playing XI so that if a particular bowler has an off day then there is a back up for that eventuality.
Unfortunately all options tried by the team management for the last 2 years which almost culminated with Ambati Rayudu as the number 4 didn’t get them a solid batsman who could bowl decently. That left India with only option of pursuing with Kedar Jhadav at number 6 since he can bowl some offspin. Suddenly, Vijay Shankar cropped up, played a few decent knocks and bowled a few decent overs including a final over against Aussies taking 2 wickets and winning the match. Ravi Shastri and Virat Kohli went over the moon with this player thinking this is going to solve their middle order conundrum and present them with a batting all rounder. Ambati Rayudu was sacrificed and Vijay Shankar got the ticket to the world cup.
Remember this Indian cricket team was the World Number 2 going into this world cup and everyone expected us to reach the finals at the bare minimum. Losing at the first hurdle of the knock outs was not expected. Remember this team had the best top order in the world. Only England came anywhere close. India had with them the World’s number one bowler in Bumrah and 2 Leg Spinners who have been in prime form for the last 2 years and have been controlling the middle overs. So all in all we had the best diversified bowling attack so a small chink in the armour (middle order) shouldn’t stop us from winning the cup isn’t it? But we were jolted back to reality by losing the semifinals. Why? Read on…
All winning teams generally have a Plan A in place which they start with and they continue with it as long as it works but they always have a Plan B and sometimes Plan C in place for eventualities which are beyond human control. All these plans are generally related to team combinations which would help the team win matches. Unfortunately the world cup proved, that the Indian team management never had a Plan B or Plan C and hence once Plan A was laid bare, they had no where to hide and hence the achilles heel (middle order) hurt them and finished them.
This is how India started the World Cup campaign. I mean the playing XI (India’s Plan A):
Rohit Sharma
Shikhar Dhawan
Virat Kohli
KL Rahul
MS Dhoni
Kedar Jhadav
Hardik Pandya
Bhuvneswar Kumar
Kuldeep Yadav
Y Chahal
Jasprit Bumrah
All went well for the first 2 matches. Top order got good runs and the middle order finished big. The pace bowlers took wickets and the spinners were somewhat effective but not that much to create alarm bells. Tragedy struck with Shikhar Dhawan getting injured and subsequently getting sidelined for the world cup. This meant, now Rahul had to open and Vijay Shankar has to play at number 4. Thats exactly what India did against Pakistan and India succeeded and infact having an extra bowler helped India because when Bhuvneswar Kumar got injured and left the field, Vijay bowled his overs and got a wicket as well. Virat Kohli and Ravi Shastri felt a sigh of relief thinking that their Plan B (which actually was not there) has worked. But well, 2 things happened thereafter almost simultaneously. One, Vijay Shankar got injured and both our leg spinners were not able to pick up wickets in subsequent matches. So now we were in a situation where our middle order was getting exposed and our bowling also now had a chink in the armoury. Now, because of an iffy middle order our top order started batting tentatively. Its a different matter that Rohit Sharma hit 5 centuries and ended the tournament as the top scorer but in total he gave 8 opportunities to the opposition which were fluffed. So now the team management felt specially after the loss against England (in the group stage) that India needs more insurance in batting, so lengthened the batting order. Actually this was a good idea and should have been implemented from the first match because India’s strength laid there which the team management never understood because of over confidence in the batting of Rohit & Virat and the bowling of the Wrist Spinners and Bumrah. But still there was some lack of clarity from the team management. No one understood how Dinesh Karthik ended up as our number 6 in place of Jhadav when Kedar has been our number 6 and won so many matches for us in the last 2 years. Something somewhere went very wrong in the thought process and I think it only happened because they never felt the importance of having Plan B or C running into the tournament.
In the first warm match before the start of the World Cup, in a cloudy day at Oval, New Zealand ran through our top and middle order and India was bowled out for 180 odd and New Zealand won the match easily as batting conditions improved later in the day. India reached 180 only due to the heroics of Ravindra Jadeja who stuck a half century coming in at number 8. He also sent down quite a few economical overs but India didn’t take Jadeja in the playing XI till the last match of the group stage. What a waste of a plan the team management had.
Ideally just like they held back Shami, India should have held back one of the Wrist Spinners and play Jadeja from the first match. Jhadav should have been continued, didn’t understand why DK suddenly took his place. Jhadav scored a half century in the only match where he got a longish shot otherwise he was held back at number 7 which was not his fault.
Playing Jhadav, Jadeja and Pandya together would have meant 6 bowling options and a batting line up going upto number 8. I am very sure the result against England also could have been different with such a team and continuing with Jhadav throughout the tournament could have meant a confident middle order during crisis (semifinals). Why I say the result could have been different against England because their all conquering openers have a chink in their armoury. They don’t start well against spinners and more so against left arm spin. Whatever England scored in the first 25 overs against India was because of the blazing start that the openers gave them.
Anyways, its not much of use discussing by-gone events but I sincerely hope that the Indian Team Management and the BCCI selectors understand their mistakes and start building an all weather team which would be full proof with no chinks and get back the coveted world number 1 status before the world cup returns to India in 2023.
So how do we plan towards mission 2023? Wait for my next post…..
Last October, I wrote an article on how the Indian team is shaping up for the World Cup. I was wrong in my selection 7 months back with 3 of my expected picks didn’t make it to the final 15. You can read the post here.
As India starts their campaign to regain the World Cup, here are my thoughts on how the team is placed in this 10 team cricket world cup.
One thing that everyone will agree is that India is filled with match winners who on their day can win matches themselves. Lets first list out India’s proven match winners:
- Virat Kohli
- Rohit Sharma
- Shikhar Dhawan
- MS Dhoni
- Jasprit Bumrah
- Hardik Pandya
- Kuldeep Yadav
- Yuzvendra Chahal
Any of these players on their given day can win matches for you single handedly. But cricket is a team game so as a team India needs to play well. Mainly because the format is interesting this time with all teams playing against each other once. So consistency will be the most important factor and a winning momentum towards the end will propel you towards ultimate glory.
I for one think that the World Cup will be won by that team whose bowling department would be consistent throughout the tournament. The team that pick wickets in the middle overs consistently has a better chance to win this quadrennial tournament.
The best bowling team in this world cup is with Team South Africa followed by Australia. India & England comes next. So these 4 teams according to me have the best bowling among the 10 playing nations.
The best batting team in this world cup is with Team England followed by Australia. India & New Zealand comes next. So these 4 teams according to me have the best batting among the 10 playing nations.
Going by this logic 4 of these 5 teams should be in the Semi Finals with the 4th place being a toss up between South Africa and New Zealand. But the World Cup won’t be this straight forward. Mainly because other teams can have brilliant days and change equations and the 2 dark horses in this world cup are West Indies and Afghanistan. And Pakistan is always an X-Factor in Multi Team Tournaments. If we have upsets from BanglaDesh and SriLanka then this tournament would be nerve wracking. So the team which holds their nerve in tight situations will eventually be the champions.
Coming back to India, the team management has to be very smart in picking the first XI and keep their best fielder as the 12th Man. Based on the ground and weather conditions they should plan their playing XI. This is how I want them to start the tournament. Playing XI as per batting order:
- Rohit Sharma
- Shikhar Dhawan
- Virat Kohli
- MS Dhoni
- Kedar Jhadav/Vijay Shankar
- Hardik Pandya
- Ravindra Jadeja
- Bhuvneshwar Kumar/Kuldeep Yadav
- Md. Shami
- Yuzvendra Chahal
- Jasprit Bumrah
If its dry weather with good batting conditions go with Kedar and Kuldeep but if its cloudy and swinging conditions and specially against Asian sides go with Shankar and Bhuvi. One most important thing to note in this XI is that India will be able to play genuine 5 bowlers with Pandya as the back up. And thats how it should be because depending on Pandya delivering 10 overs consistently would be too much to ask for and that pressure might have a detrimental effect on his batting. People might think that India looks light on batting but we need to live with this fact that middle order batting of this team will always be the achilles heel. If India is unable to reach the semi finals it would be only because of this reason and that would also mean that the top 3 has not delivered consistently. For Indian team to succeed they have to hope for a consistent performance from the Top 3 with the occasional blemish to be covered by MSD and Jhadav. Pandya has to play the role of the finisher and none in the world today is as destructive as him apart from Russell when it comes to finishing an innings.
India will be playing New Zealand in their first warm up match in a few hours from now and we will know how this team is prepared for the longish tournament. Vijay Shankar and Jhadav won’t be available today due to injuries (which is a big concern because these are 2 batting all rounders India have and India can’t afford to lose them because there is no replacement of the same kind available). Hope they recover soon to play the next warm up against Bangladesh.
Let the game begin and I look forward to continue writing through the tournament. I hope you all enjoy my writing and I appreciate any feedback that you wish to give.
Jai Hind! Jai Bharat! Vijay Bharat!
As the 2019 General Elections come to a close, everyone wants to know the result. Before the exit polls start running a few hours from now, the psephologist in me tried to analyse the past election results (2014 LokSabha & subsequent state elections), the ground reports from various journalists across the country, the new alliances (chemistry & arithmetic) and voter turnouts to make my personal prediction for Lok Sabha Elections 2019.
Lets start with the big states first and the biggest of them is Uttar Pradesh which send 80 lawmakers to the parliament.
Uttar Pradesh:
Bahujan Samaj Party, Samajwadi Party and Rastriya Lok Dal are fighting together (MGB) this time to make this battleground state very interesting and probably a psephologists nightmare. BJP along with its alliance partner won 73 seats in 2014. If the arithmetic of the MGB works together in the ground then it will be very difficult for BJP to hold on to so many seats this time around.
My prediction:
MGB: 48 (SP: 24; BSP: 22; RLD: 2)
BJP: 27
INC: 5
There are about 12 seats where close fights happening and its a little difficult to predict how much damage Mr. Shivpal Yadav is doing to MGB. But taking all into consideration I am confident on my above prediction. May 23rd will prove if my thought process was right or wrong.
Now, lets move to the next big state and thats Maharastra.
Maharastra:
Maharastra is another state where, NDA (BJP & Shiv Sena) virtually swept winning 42 of the available 48 seats. The NCP won 4 seats while Congress won 2 in 2014. Has anything changed this time? In 2014, MNS lead by Mr. Raj Thakeray put up candidates in many seats and got sizeable amount of votes in Mumbai & surroundings. This time around he has not put up candidates and in turn has been doing big rallies against NDA. The NDA partner, Shiv Sena was up in arms against BJP for the last 5 years but right before elections stitched up an alliance. Will this lead to voter apathy against Shiv Sena? Will MNS hurt Shiv Sena more to get the legacy of the late Mr. Bal Thakeray? UPA on the other hand stitched together a good alliance and Mr. Sharad Pawar lead the UPA campaign very well. There was visible chemistry between the supporters of the 2 main parties of UPA. Add the rural distress in the state and its visibly clear that the NDA sweep which Mr. Amit Shah boasted off is not happening. So what would be the final results of Maharastra?
My Prediction:
NDA: 29 (BJP 18; SS 11)
UPA: 19 (INC 10; NCP 9)
Lets now move to West Bengal.
West Bengal:
I already gave my analysis on West Bengal couple of days back.
My Prediction:
TMC: 32
BJP: 7
INC: 3
The next big state which I am going to talk about is Bihar.
Bihar:
The state of Bihar sends 40 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha. This is another state where the alliance dynamics have been quite fluid in the last 5 years. In 2014, it was a triangular fight between NDA (BJP, LJP, RLSP), UPA (RJD, INC, NCP) and JD (U). In 2019 the fight is bipolar with JD(U) back in the NDA fold but RLSP left NDA and joined UPA. Add to that Mr. Sharad Yadav leaving JD(U) and joining RJD and 2 relatively new but small parties namely HAM (carved out of JD(U) and lead by former chief minister, Mr. Jiten Majhi) and VIP joining the UPA alliance. With these new dynamics in place I am very sure Bihar would also be a psephologist’s nightmare because it would be very difficult to predict who is gaining from whom and who is cutting whose votes when one analyse seat by seat in the state. Having said that, arithmetically with JD(U) back in NDA its base has become more broader.
My Prediction:
NDA: 27 (BJP 14; JD(U) 10; LJP 3)
UPA: 13 ( RJD 6; INC 5; RLSP 2)
The next state we will focus on now is the southern state of Tamil Nadu.
Tamil Nadu:
Interestingly this state has been a psephological nightmare in the past and the biggest howler being 2004. This time also its difficult to predict. This is the first major election thats happening in TN after the death of Ms. Jayalalitha and Mr. Karunanidhi. BJP has stitched up an alliance with AIADMK and few more regional parties namely, DMDK & PMK. The interesting bit is that Mr. TTK Dinakaran broke AIADMK after Ms. Jayalalitha’s death and formed a new party AMMK and has been campaigning as the true heir of Amma’s legacy. AMMK is fighting alone and how much is he hurting AIADMK, only final results on 23rd May will reveal. There is another new player in the mix and thats Mr. Kamal Hassan’s MNM party. Is MNM making a difference this election? We will know in a few days time. One point to be noted that though Tamil Nadu sends 39 MPs to the parliament, this time elections were held in 38 seats with the election of Vellore being postponed due to corruption.
My Prediction:
UPA: 31 (DMK 18, INC 5, VCK 2, Other DMK partners: 6)
AMMK: 5
NDA: 2 (BJP 1, PMK 1)
Since we have entered south, lets finish off all the southern states one by one. Lets get to Karnataka now.
Karnataka:
Karnataka sends 28 lawmakers to the parliament. In 2014, BJP won 17 seats, INC won 9 seats and JD (S) won 2 seats. It was a triangular fight in 2014. In 2019, there has been a slight change in political dynamics of Karnataka. INC and JD(S) are now fighting together in an alliance so its a bipolar election in Karnataka this time. How the alliance of INC and JD(S) working in the ground will determine the final outcome in this state.
My Prediction:
NDA: 14 (BJP 14)
UPA: 14 (INC: 11, JD(S): 3)
Now on to Andhra Pradesh.
Andhra Pradesh:
Once a citadel of the Congress party is now mainly a fight between 2 regional parties TDP and YSRCP. Both the national parties, BJP and INC are fighting for 3rd and 4th position here. How Mr. Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party performs would be interesting to watch. Andhra Pradesh sends 25 MPs to the parliament.
My Prediction:
YSRCP: 19
TDP: 6
Telangana:
This is a new state curved out of Andhra Pradesh in 2014. The move actually decimated Congress with all INC leaders of Seema Andhra joining Mr. Jagan Reddy of YSRCP virtually wiping out Congress from the state. Telangana now is a one horse race with Mr. KC Rao of TRS holding all the aces. In the recent State Elections he came back with a thumping majority. Telangana sends 17 MPs to the parliament. Quite an easy state to predict.
My Prediction:
TRS: 13
UPA: 2 (INC 2)
NDA: 1 (BJP 1)
AIMIM: 1
The final state in South India is Kerala.
Kerala:
Kerala has always been a bipolar state with the fight being between CPI (M) lead LDF and INC lead UDF. BJP improved its vote share in 2014 and seems to have increased its vote share further this time. Will it lead to major surprises in 2019 or will BJP manage to open its account in Kerala is something which 23rd May will have an answer. Interestingly, INC President, Mr. Rahul Gandhi is fighting from Wayanad in Kerala this time. Will this have an effect in the overall results in Kerala? We will know in a few days.
My Prediction:
UPA: 17 (INC 13, UDF partners 4)
LDF: 3
Now lets move to the Central part of India.
Madhya Pradesh:
Madhya Pradesh sends 29 MPs to the parliament. BJP won 27 of them in 2014 general elections. In the recently concluded State Legislative elections, MP witnessed a very close fight between BJP and Congress. Add to this the tribal belt problems and rural distress and MP becomes an interesting elections to follow. Mr. Narendra Modi’s image is an automatic vote catcher. Will this be the deciding factor?
My Prediction:
INC: 15
BJP: 14
Chhattisgarh:
Chhattisgarh which sends 11 lawmakers to the parliament is another state which BJP virtually swept in 2014 by winning 10 seats. In December 2018 legislative assembly elections, INC stormed back to power after 15 years with a huge mandate. Will this effect the performance of BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or will the Modi image still rule the roost? Important thing to note is that Chhattisgarh is a primarily rural state with a sizeable tribal population and will that have a major effect in the Lok Sabha polls would be interesting to see.
My Prediction:
INC: 9
BJP: 2
Chhattisgarh’s nearest neighbour is Odisha and that state would be our next focus.
Odisha:
Like Bengal, Odisha is another state from where BJP expects to make sizeable gains. Will BJP be able to do that is what everyone is looking forward to. Mr. Naveen Patnaik’s BJD has been ruling Odisha for 20 long years. With INC now in the fringes, BJP has taken over as the main opposition party. Will Congress be able to hold on to its core vote share? Will Congress be able to get any seats due to candidate’s personal connect and charisma? Will BJP be able to gain a sizeable amount of seats? All these will be answered on 23rd May.
My Prediction:
BJP: 12
BJD: 7
INC: 2
Lets move towards the Western Part of the Country. Our destination is Gujarat.
Gujarat:
Gujarat is a BJP bastion. Add to this, its Mr. Modi’s and BJP president, Mr. Amit Shah’s home state. Mr. Amit Shah himself is fighting from Gandhinagar. In 2014, BJP did a complete sweep of Gujarat winning all the 26 seats on offer. Other than a couple of seats, the margin of victory in each seat was humongous. Congress made a small comeback in the 2017 state elections though BJP won with a reduced majority. Will the same pattern follow in 2019 or will the Modi-Shah juggernaut roll over INC? Will the rural distress and tribal populated seats hurt BJP? To be fair, the fight is only in 10-12 seats and in the rest BJP is way ahead.
My Prediction:
BJP: 20
INC: 6
Next we move to the neighbouring state of Rajasthan.
Rajasthan:
Another state where BJP did a complete sweep in 2014 winning all the 25 seats. This is another state where the agrarian crisis has been felt and there is a sizeable tribal population as well. This combination lead to the BJP government be defeated in the December State Assembly polls. Will we see a repeat or will the Modi image blow over the Congress party? The Balakot strikes had a good traction in this state and will that effect the electorate is something which we will have to see. Once again a state where the rural-urban divide could be interesting to see.
My Prediction:
BJP: 14
INC: 11
Lets now move to the northern state of Haryana.
Haryana:
With the break up of INLD, this election has become more of a 2 party race other than Hisar. BJP won 7 out of the 10 seats in 2014. Will they be able to hold on will be interesting to see.
My Prediction:
BJP: 5
INC: 4
JJP: 1
Now we will move to the North East State of Assam.
Assam:
Assam used to be a strong hold of Congress for many years but after BJP came to power in the state, it has been a downhill battle for the Congress party. The state sends 14 MPs to the parliament. Will BJP be able to gain further or will they lose ground is what would be interesting to see. AIUDF fighting separately and AGP siding with BJP could have an effect on the final tally. Will the controversy surrounding the Citizen Amendment Bill have an effect on these elections or will the Modi magic rule the roost once again?
My Prediction:
INC: 7
BJP: 6
AIUDF: 1
Our next stop is Jharkhand.
Jharkhand:
Another tribal dominated state and a state where UPA got its alliance in place quite early. In 2014 BJP won 12 of the 14 seats in Jharkhand. How will it shape up this time? Will the tribal belt go away from BJP? Lets wait and watch.
My Prediction:
BJP: 7
UPA: 7 (INC 4, JMM 2, JVM 1)
NCT of Delhi:
BJP won by a huge margin in each of the 7 seats in Delhi in 2014. AAP came second and Congress was pushed to a distant third. In 2019 a long drama was played out with AAP and Congress playing hide and seek with regards to an alliance which finally didn’t take place. Will that help BJP in the final picture? We will get to know soon. Frankly speaking BJP is way ahead of the opposition in 3 seats. The battle is only on the other 4 seats. Will it lead to any change in the seat scenario only time will tell.
My Prediction:
BJP: 6
INC: 1
Uttarakhand:
Another state where BJP swept in 2014 winning all the 5 seats on offer.
My Prediction:
BJP: 3
INC: 2
Himachal Pradesh:
Another state where BJP swept in 2014 winning all the 4 seats on offer.
My Prediction:
BJP: 3
INC: 1
Jammu & Kashmir:
J&K is witnessing a 4 way fight this time between, BJP, INC, JKNC and PDP.
My Prediction:
INC: 2
BJP: 2
JKNC: 2
Punjab:
This was one state which Congress didn’t do as badly as the rest of North India. With the Congress in power in the state, will it help Congress to consolidate or will NDA make a comeback? Will AAP hold on to its 4 seats or is their popularity waning. We will get to know the answers on 23rd May.
My Prediction:
INC: 10
SAD: 2
AAP: 1
The prediction for rest of the states and UTs are given below:
Arunachal Pradesh (2 Seats)
BJP: 2
Goa (2 Seats)
BJP: 2
Manipur (2 Seats)
BJP: 2
Meghalaya (2 Seats)
BJP: 1
INC: 1
Mizoram (1 Seat):
MNF: 1
Nagaland (1 Seat):
INC: 1
Sikkim (1 Seat):
SDF: 1
Tripura (2 Seats):
BJP: 2
Andaman & Nicobar Islands (1 Seat):
INC: 1
Chandigarh (1 Seat):
INC: 1
Dadra & Nagar Haveli (1 Seat):
BJP: 1
Daman & Diu (1 Seat):
BJP: 1
Lakshwadeep (1 Seat):
NCP: 1
Puducherry (1 Seat):
INC 1
So all India total and alliance arithmetic:
NDA: 216 (BJP: 187)
UPA: 191 (INC: 133)
Left Front: 5 Seats
Others: 130 Seats (TMC 32, SP 24, BSP 22, YSRCP 19, TRS 13, BJD 7, Others 13)
Come 23rd May and I will come to know if I have been able to make sense of this election or not. If my numbers hold (with +/- 15 seats) then I guess I would be happy to know that I have sensed the trend correct. Overall my numbers predict a very hung parliament but with the error margin it could be easier for one of the combination to form the government if the extreme end of the error margin is taken.
Now lets move to the exit polls first to see where I stand before moving onto 23rd May for the actual results.
Happy Sunday folks!
Jai Hind! Vande Mataram!
So the long drawn Indian general elections is coming to an end. Many journalists are predicting that Bengal is the real battle ground state this year. The amount of rallies that Mr. Amit Shah and Mr. Narendra Modi did in Bengal this time also points to the same fact. But is Ms. Mamata Banerjee losing ground? Will the BJP upsurge in Bengal lead to a lot of seats? Read on!
In 2014, TMC got 39% votes and won 34 seats, BJP got 17% and won 2 seats, Left Front got close to 30% votes and won 2 seats and Congress got 9.5% and won 4 seats.
The vote share of Congress is concentrated in a pocketful of seats and that will more or less continue to remain the same. The real churn is expected between BJP and the Left Front. Its being generally felt a large scale Left Front votes is shifting to BJP this time. Also a few disenchanted voters of TMC is also moving to BJP in some pockets. What does that mean in the overall picture?
TMC might end up with 38% votes, BJP 33%, Left 15% and Congress 10%. So what this proves is that Vote Share wise it will be a close election in bengal but the gap between BJP and TMC will still be 5% and thats still quite a big gap because the margins of most seats won by TMC was quite big in 2014. BJP will wrest seats where there are multi-cornered contests or close fights.
Now lets look into the seats scenario:
Out of the 42 seats in Bengal, the seats where BJP is in with a real fighting chance are these:
- Alipurduas
- Asansol
- Balurghat
- Bongaon
- Bankura
- Bardhaman Purba
- Bardhaman Durgapur
- Barrackpore
- Bashirhat
- Birbhum
- Bolpur
- Coochbehar
- Darjeeling
- Dumdum
- Hooghly
- Jalpaiguri
- Jhargram
- Kolkata North
- Krishnanagar
- Malda North
- Medinipur
- Purulia
- Raiganj
- Ranaghat
- Srerampur
Now putting the principal of 50% left front votes going to BJP, how many seats does actually BJP has a chance of winning? Lets find out.
- Alipurduas
- Asansol
- Darjeeling
- Kolkata North
- Krishnanagar
- Purulia
- Raiganj
So realistically even after so much hype, I don’t expect BJP to win more than 7 seats in Bengal. The Congress strongholds of Malda South & Bahrampur will remain with Congress. 2 closely contested seats of Jangipur and Murshidabad can go to TMC or Congress.
So my prediction on Bengal standing today is:
INC: 2-4
BJP: 7
TMC: 31-33
I will be very surprised if this doesn’t hold on 23rd May 2019.
Autumn had already set in and the breeze felt cooler as me and Ayan (Ayan Basu my classmate at SVTS) walked towards the rickshaw stand. As we got up on our rickshaw, the rickshaw puller said, “Indira Gandhi has been assassinated”. Even before we could react, he continued, “The security personnel gunned her down”.
Yes, it was 31st October 1984.
I was just a 9 year old then who didn’t have an iota of knowledge about politics, forget about guns & bullets. Still, at that age knowing that our Prime Minister has been killed made me go numb.
As our rickshaw puller trudged on towards our respective homes, my mind flew back few years.
I was all of 5 years old when I first saw Mrs. Indira Gandhi at a public gathering in Asansol. Infact that’s only time I saw her in flesh-and-blood. Mrs. Gandhi had come to the loco parade grounds to address a public gathering before the 1980 general elections. My father took me to that gathering and though I didn’t understand what was being said but I do remember the sea of people gathered around the place and it was a nice winter outing for me. That’s how I got connected to the Iron Lady of India.
Later on, I heard a lot of stories from my maternal uncle about Mrs. Indira Gandhi, he being a senior correspondent and later resident editor of National Herald had close access to the then Prime Minister of the country.
By the time I came back to reality, our rickshaw reached our house and as usual, I saw my mother’s ever concerning face standing at the door steps.
Next Day, the newspapers were filled with Indira Gandhi stories. Her last speech which till now gives me goosebumps were splashed all over and Doordarshan kept playing the same speech in a loop.
“Nobody knows how many attempts have been made to shoot me; lathis have been used to beat me. They have attacked me in every possible manner. I do not care whether I live or die. I have lived a long life and I am proud that I spend the whole of my life in the service of my people. I am only proud of this and nothing else. I shall continue to serve until my last breath and when I die, I can say, that every drop of my blood will invigorate India and strengthen it.”
Our school declared holiday till the weekend because of the needless Sikh riots that followed the death of Mrs. Gandhi. The massacre that followed for the next few days spilled into our generally peaceful township of Asansol as well. I remember quite a few friends’ families suffered from this wrath. I am very sure our Iron Lady would have never approved such a cowardly act by some hooligans.
I remember watching the last journey of Mrs. Indira Gandhi including the funeral ceremony on TV. Schools were shut, offices were closed and the roads were deserted as everyone remained glued to their TV sets with loud sounds of “Jab tak Suraj Chand rahega, Indira tera naam rahega”.
As I grew up I realised why India will forever be indebted to the foresight of Mrs. Indira Gandhi. Some of her major achievements included, Nationalisation of Private Sector Banks, industries like coal and services like insurance etc., underground testing of India’s indigenous nuclear capability in Pokhran, Rajasthan but the biggest achievement was the war with Pakistan in 1971 and successful Liberation of Bangladesh.
Yes, she did a miscalculation with Internal Emergency in 1975 which she realised later and the citizens of the country voted her out of power but later on she apologised in 1978 realising her mistake and the voters voted her back to power in 1980.
As, the nation pays tribute to the Iron Lady on her 34th death anniversary, I still remember vividly the lakhs of people on Rajpath trudging along with her on her final journey amid loud chants of, “Jab tak Suraj Chand rahega, Indira tera naam rahega”.
“No….No…..NO”, I screamed at the top of my voice.
Joy Da, who was sitting on the front passenger seat, raised his hand reassuringly, a signal for me to chill. At the same moment, I felt a pinch on my left leg. I realised Alok Da who was sitting left to me, pinched me to keep quiet.
It was 15th July, 2017 and we were returning from Garhpanchkot which is located in the eastern part of India at the foothills of Panchet Hill in the district of Purulia, West Bengal.
We had been to Asansol a couple of days back to attend the AGM of SVAAA (Alumni association of our school). Our gang of 4 from Kolkata (Joy Da, Alok Da, Anuj Da and myself) met at Anandalok Hospital located at Karunamoyee, SaltLake on the evening of 13th July from where Anuj Da picked us up in his Maruti Suzuki Ertiga. The car was driven by Anuj Da’s young and eccentric driver, Raju. It was close to 6.30 PM when we started. By the time we reached Belghoria Express Way, the clock was past 7.30 PM. With the usual evening traffic congestion it was not very unexpected. But if you have Anuj Da for company, time can pass like a breeze. Anyways, we reached our usual stop over on NH 2, Azad Hind Dhaba at around 8.30 PM. We knew, that it won’t be possible to reach Asansol before 11 PM, so decided to have early dinner. We reached Asansol a little before 11 PM, thanks to our driver Raju who loves speed. We generally stay at the Hotel Meera International whenever we are at Asansol and it was no different this time as well. Next day, we got up nice and early, finished our break fast and reached our school (St. Vincent’s High & Technical School) before the scheduled start of the AGM. After the AGM got over at 1 PM, we left for Garhpanchkot. We stopped for lunch at Kamal Family Restaurant at Neamatpur. My friend Sanjeev also joined us for lunch. We ordered pure Bengali food and the food served was pretty good. While we were ordering one of our juniors, Sachin reached the place and he too joined us for lunch. Sachin stays at Neamatpur and being a regular visitor of the restaurant, got us the best of the cuisine. He didn’t even allow us to pay for the lunch. After lunch, Sanjeev bid us good bye since he had some urgent business work to be accomplished. Sachin then took us to a nearby Paan shop to treat us to some special paan. Thereafter, we bid him goodbye as we restarted our journey towards Garhpanchkot.
This was our first visit to this place. Alok Da had pre-booked Panchet Residency. For proper directions to our destination, I opened Google Maps and followed the instructions. My past experiences with Google Maps have shown that if you follow blindly specially in odd locations, you can land in trouble. This time also it was no different. We should have reached our destination in half an hour but even after 45 minutes we didn’t reach the resort. We had a never ending narrow road in front of us and a thin forrest line on both sides. Finally we reached a crossing and asked a localite (Thank God that there were people around) about Panchet Residency and he told that we need to go back 10 KMs and need to take a detour. After a bit of difficulty we spotted the place from where we needed to take a left turn to reach the resort. The resort layout was very nice with a cottage set up and good open spaces. The greenery surrounding the resort was very pleasant to the eye. The resort is situated right at the foothills of the Panchet Hill and the hill looks majestic while sitting on the spawned lawns.
After checking in and freshening up, we left for the Garhpanchkot fort which was about a 5 KM drive from our resort. Garhpanchkot fort was a part of the Singh Deo dynasty of Panchkot located at the southern foothills and a group of temples are still standing as mute spectators of the rise and fall of the dynasty. The ruins of the fort are a silent testimony to the Bargi attack during the 18th century. The temples are of different architectural styles, the principal one being a ‘Pancharatna’ temple accompanied by ‘Jor-Bangla’ type and more than one ‘Pirha’ type temples made of stone. The Pancharatna temple still carries some depleted but exquisite piece of pre-muslim period terracotta work on its arches and pillars.
We found some nice open spaces there, where the tea stall person arranged some chairs and table for us to sit. With a nice breeze blowing (and no rains thank fully) we enjoyed our outing with 2 rounds of tea and some hot pakoras.
As the Sun started moving further west, we made our move towards Panchet Dam which was about 10 KMs from there. We roamed around the dam area for more than half an hour enjoying the serene environment before driving back to the resort. Sanjeev joined us later in the evening and stayed with us till late in the night. He had dinner with us before returning back to Asansol. We still don’t know the secret reason of why he doesn’t stay back with us ever. That mystery needs to be resolved some day soon.
Anyways, we remained awake for a long time chit chatting among ourselves and slept quite late in the night. One can never get bored when Anuj Da is around because he has a lot of experiences which he shares in his own unique style. Next day, quite predictably we woke up late and after finishing our break fast, we checked out and started our journey back to Kolkata.
We decided to have our lunch at Azad Hind Dhaba. We reached around 1 PM. Our driver, Raju was in full flow and wanted to reach home early and infact persuaded us to not break for lunch. But we being we (Living for food) had the final say and we stopped at the Dhaba. While we ordered, Raju didn’t order anything. Looked like he had some real urgent work and it was his way of protesting!
After lunch as we started back for Kolkata, Raju for some inexplicable reason decided to cross the NH2 through short cut. Now, whoever have been through this stretch of NH2 will know that there is no barricade or divider between the UP and Down lanes and hence many people crossover to the other side without taking the pain of driving another 5 KMs for the designated U-Turn. Its even more risky during rainy season because the divider portion gets muddy and the land shrinks by more than 6 inches and passenger cars with low ground clearance can get stuck.
As I screamed, my worst fears came true. The car got stuck. As much as Raju tried to press the accelerator, the car remained stand still. A few localities who were passing by nodded their heads in either direction, implementing that the car is stuck for good. This prompted Anuj Da, who was sitting on my right to get down from the car. Instantaneously, Joy Da also got down from the front passenger seat. Both of them went in front of the car to check where has it got stuck. Sitting inside and watching their facial expression gave me the impression that all is not good. Joy Da came back to inform that the front bumper of the car is stuck in the mud and hence there is no chance of the car moving forward. Since the land has shrunk, for us to go to the other side of the road meant the car has to go up and with the bumper stuck there was no chance of moving up. Me and Alok Da then promptly got down. As we got down, we could see that the front portion of the car jack up. I went to the front of the car and was bewildered to see that the front wheels are hanging in the air and the car was basically standing on the rear wheels and that also mostly on the right rear wheel. In this position it was very difficult to reverse the car as well. We had a double whammy on our hands now. We not only had to get the front portion of the car down from the hanging position, we also needed a way to get it back on the road.
By now, Raju was sweating profusely and the impatient Anuj Da was making his life more difficult. An icy cool Alok Da was trying his best to calm down his friend. I saw a motley crowd of 6-7 people already gathering around our vehicle. To bring the car back from the hanging position, it was decided that we need to load the car. So Joy Da went back to his front passenger seat as me and Anuj Da sat in the second row leaning our body weights towards the left. This ensured the car to be brought back to the ground level. But there was no way that the car can move forward because the front bumper was getting stuck to the mud. So we needed the car to jack up a bit so that people can push the car from the front without harming the front bumper. Alok Da asked Joy Da to come down from the car as me and Anuj Da remained seated in our left leaning position. As Joy Da came out of the car, we could feel that the car jacked up a bit. The front left portion was still hanging in air but it was just off the ground. Now Alok Da along with a few localites (thank God there were some people around) pushed the car from the front to bring it up on the road. With me and Anuj Da sitting inside, I can assure you that it was no easy task plus it was a highway, so any speeding vehicle could have rammed us as well if the car was not manoeuvred correctly. Thank fully, 2 proactive guys from the crowd, kept displaying a red cloth so that any vehicle thats coming from the other side would notice and slow down. Fortunately for us, nothing untoward happened and after thanking our God sent fellow citizens, Joy Da and Alok Da got back into the car.
Anuj Da got his mojo back and gave a mouthful to Raju who was still reeling from this shock. We went back another 5 KMs and took the designated U-Turn from Gurap and continued our journey back home to Kolkata.
The notional thinking that by taking a short cut, one can reach his or her destination faster was demystified on this trip. Our future trips with Raju on the driving wheel proved that he has learnt the lesson well.
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